The cross-Channel reset: Trump, Putin, and shifting EU-UK opinion
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
Public opinion polling
The ‘Unlock Europe’s Majority’ project aims at pushing back against the rise of anti-Europeanism that threatens to weaken Europe and its influence in the world. Through polling in EU member states, ECFR’s analysis seeks to unlock shifting coalitions in Europe that favour a more internationally engaged union.
Featured
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
Quick off the bloc: Security challenges for the next European Commission
For the European Union to convince the world – and its citizens – that it is taking its geopolitical responsibilities seriously, the next European Commission must be proactive in improving its approach to security
The cross-Channel reset: Trump, Putin, and shifting EU-UK opinion
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
8 Jul
The Morning After: Analysing the Results of the French Election
As France discovers the new making of its national assembly, this webinar will analyse the election results and reflect on their impact on a geopolitical…
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
7 May
European Elections and beyond: Crafting Europe’s new geopolitical agenda
Amid a volatile geopolitical environment, ECFR’s recent public opinion poll ahead of the European elections shows that a geopolitical case for Europe resonates with voters,…
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections
The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a shift to the right in many countries and could mean that a populist right coalition emerges with a majority for the first time
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Publications
The cross-Channel reset: Trump, Putin, and shifting EU-UK opinion
Voters in both the UK and major EU states are open to compromise. Leaders on both sides of the Channel should use this political space for an ambitious reset
The meaning of sovereignty: Ukrainian and European views of Russia’s war on Ukraine
New research confirms Ukrainians’ determination to fight and Europeans’ steady support for Kyiv. But a major divide lurks beneath this appearance of unity
A new political map: Getting the European Parliament election right
Mainstream parties are hoping to prevent an anticipated far-right surge in this year’s European Parliament election. But the results of ECFR’s latest opinion poll suggest their current strategy could backfire – and what they should do instead
Wars and elections: How European leaders can maintain public support for Ukraine
As Russia’s war on Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, European leaders need to prevent Vladimir Putin from capitalising on war fatigue in the West. To maintain public support for backing Kyiv in this crucial election year, they should make clear that a Russian victory is not peace
A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections
The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a shift to the right in many countries and could mean that a populist right coalition emerges with a majority for the first time
A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year
European politics is divided between ‘crisis tribes,’ formed from different traumas. Climate and migration are set to be especially influential in this year’s European Parliament election
Living in an à la carte world: What European policymakers should learn from global public opinion
A new global opinion poll for ECFR reveals that many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate into full political alignment. People instead prefer an a la carte arrangement, in which their governments pragmatically select their partners depending on the matter at hand
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
European citizens are adapting slowly to the new geopolitical landscape. But leaders have an opportunity to build public consensus on Europe’s approach to China, the US, and Russia
Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a test of European values. The way European governments respond is critical for European sentiment, unity, and solidarity with Ukraine
Fragile unity: Why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
Recent polling for ECFR suggests that Europeans have come closer together in their support for Ukraine. But the factors driving this unity are fragile, contingent, and may not last
Articles
Why should anyone care? Foreign policy and public opinion
There are at least six reasons why public opinion on foreign policy should matter more today than it did in the past
Edge of the Atlantic: Portugal’s presidency of the EU Council
Faced with a growing Sino-American rivalry and a world in which US power may be diminishing, Portugal will have to decide how to maintain its traditional Atlanticism while increasingly focusing on Europe
Is Atlanticist Denmark turning more European?
Donald Trump may have done lasting damage to the United States’ reputation even in pro-American Denmark
How to spend it: Why Germany is saying goodbye to frugality
Germany, together with France, aims to play a decisive role in the reconstruction of the post-coronavirus world
Sweden’s climate carol: From Ebenezer Scrooge to Greta Thunberg
The Swedish government has more room than it thinks to champion the EU recovery fund – and thereby nurture pro-Europeanism, rather than Euroscepticism, among Swedish voters
Three reasons why Denmark could transform its relationship with the EU
New survey data from ECFR and Think Tank EUROPA reveal why Danes may be abandoning some of their traditional attitudes towards EU policy
A fundamental fight: The frugal four and the rule of law
The ‘frugal four’ are showing an admirable commitment to defending the rule of law. But they bear some responsibility in Hungary and Poland
The Swede spot: Why Stockholm needs flexible coalitions
Sweden needs to stay flexible – and avoid getting stuck in one coalition – if it wants to use its power in the EU to the fullest
The frugal blues: An underappreciated threat to the European project
It would be premature to conclude that the frugal four are, or will remain, happy about the EU’s budgetary deal
Donald Trump’s defeat would deal a blow to European populism
Victory for Joe Biden in November would empower liberals in former Habsburg lands
Specials
What Europeans really want: Five myths debunked
New ECFR/YouGov research reveals huge fluidity in current voting intentions: 70 percent of Europeans certain to vote are yet to make their choice. Nearly 100m swing voters are up for grabs
The 2019 European election: How anti-Europeans plan to wreck Europe and what can be done to stop it
Summary With anti-Europeans on their way to winning more than one-third of seats in the next European Parliament, the stakes in the May 2019 election…
Podcasts
Keeping America close, Russia down, and China far away: How Europeans navigate a competitive world
Mark Leonard welcomes Jana Puglierin and Pawel Zerka to analyse the results of the latest polling report
United West, divided from the rest: Global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
Mark Leonard, Timothy Garton Ash, and Ivan Krastev discuss the main findings of ECFR’s latest opinion poll
Peace versus Justice: The coming European split over the war in Ukraine
New ECFR research reveals that Europe’s remarkable unity in the early days of the war is under threat from an emerging split – between those who want peace as soon as possible and those who favour justice for Ukraine
What future for the transatlantic alliance?
How well does the transatlantic alliance still fit with the way that Europe and the United States now see their goals in foreign policy?
How Europeans see Biden’s America
How do Europeans assess the future of transatlantic relations?
Europe’s pandemic politics: How the virus has changed the public’s worldview
As covid-19 raged, speculation grew that the crisis would re– strengthen public support for the state; faith in…
Europe’s way out of the coronavirus crisis: from self-interest to solidarity?
The coronavirus crisis brought about financial hardship for the European Union, and many agree that a recovery fund would be needed to overcome it. In…
Expecting the Unexpected?: the UK & the 2019 European elections
Listen on Mixcloud At our recent event in London, ECFR’s Director Mark Leonard and MEP candidates Laura Parker, Jan…
United States of Europe? Panel with German EU election candidates
Listen on Mixcloud At the Humbold Symposium 2019 in Berlin, ECFR’s director Mark Leonard moderated a panel discussion with…
L’avenir de la démocratie en Europe
Podcast de notre conférence du 24 avril « L'avenir de la démocratie en Europe » en partenariat avec la Revue Esprit, en présence…
Events
9 Jul
Still standing together: A NATO summit on Ukraine’s fate
As leaders are about to take pivotal decisions for Ukraine’s fate at the NATO summit, join us for a discussion about pathways and policy options for…
8 Jul
The Morning After: Analysing the Results of the French Election
As France discovers the new making of its national assembly, this webinar will analyse the election results and reflect on their impact on a geopolitical…
10 Jun
ECFR’s Election Insights: Implications for Europe’s foreign policy agenda
This webinar will provide a snapshot analysis of election results and their implications for Europe’s foreign policy and security agenda. Featuring perspectives from selected ECFR…
7 May
European Elections and beyond: Crafting Europe’s new geopolitical agenda
Amid a volatile geopolitical environment, ECFR’s recent public opinion poll ahead of the European elections shows that a geopolitical case for Europe resonates with voters,…
12 Dec
How to convince the European public to enlarge the EU
This event will discuss new polling data of six key EU member states in the enlargement debate (Germany, France, Denmark, Austria, Poland, Romania) and reveal what voters think about the geopolitical imperative of EU enlargement
12 Dec
What do middle powers think? The view from South Africa
Many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate…
8 Dec
What do middle powers think? The view from Turkey
Many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate…
6 Dec
What do middle powers think? The view from Saudi Arabia
Many people outside the West want Europe and the US in their lives for all they have to offer – but that does not translate…
15 Nov
What do middle powers think?
As the global order continues to rapidly evolve, Europe faces important questions: how to cooperate and compete on climate, the digital economy and defence? With whom? How will the strategic choices of an increasingly diverse set of powers shape the world order? What kind of foreign policy do European citizens want to see with the 2024 European elections on the horizon?
31 Mar
The battle for the Elysee
ECFR is collaborating with De Balie to discuss France’s political future and the impact of the election result on European integration and solidarity
In the media
Foreign Affairs cites the Ukraine Unlock polling
Euractiv quotes the new Unlock reporting on Ukraine public opinion
Ukraine Unlock polling quoted in Al Jazeera
Berlingske reports on the findings of the Unlock polling Ukraine paper
Politiken reports on the new Ukraine public opinion Unlock paper